Failure track analysis

The Delve expansion for Ironsworn describes an optional mechanic that rewards players for their rolls that result in a miss. Every time they miss, they add 1 tick (or 3 ticks if the roll was a progress roll, but I'll completely ignore these for this analysis) to a failure track. Every 4 ticks constitute a full mark and the failure track can have up to 10 marks. Once the track has 6 marks (in other words after 24 miss-rolls) the player can choose to "learn from their mistakes". This move is resolved by a roll and resets the fail track to zero ticks again. The resolution is a simple progress roll against the fail track where a strong hit awards 3 XP, a weak hit awards 2XP and a fail rewards 1XP. Additionally a strong hit will let the player discard an asset for more XP (which I will ignore for this analysis) and a weak hit will narratively force the player to learn the wrong lesson from their failures which is in my opinion a hefty penalty if role-played correctly.

I did a small analysis of the 5 different points when a player can trigger the "learn from your mistakes" move:

Learn from your mistakes when you have this many marks	Miss-rolls to gain 1XP	Miss-rolls to have to learn the wrong lesson
6	12	96
7	12.73	175
8	13.33	355.6
9	13.85	900
10	14.29	4000

Triggering the "learn from your mistakes" move as frequently as possible gives more XP overall but the difference is minor: less than 20% extra XP compared to waiting for a full failure trackbefore you trigger. At the same time frequent triggers will result in a 4066% increase in how often you'll be learning the wrong lesson compared to waiting for a full failure track before triggering!

If someone wants to verify the code that produced the above table, I wrote it on a casio fx-3650P II just for fun so I can't exactly upload the code but here's a rough dump:

For 6->M To 10:

0->X:

0->Y:

1->A:

Lbl 1:

1->B:

Lbl 2:

(M>A)+(M>B)+1+X->X:

(M<=A)+(M<=B)=2=>Y+1->Y:

B+1->B:

B<=10=>Goto 2:

A+1->A:

A<=10=>Goto 1:

M[output triangle symbol]

M*400/X[output triangle symbol]

M*400*Y[output triangle symbol]

Next

Aperito v1.5.3

    Version 1.5.3 of Aperito doesn't show the message about applying permissions to directories when there are none to apply. It also stops affecting the modification times of directories in the source tree (those would change as files were moved out of them). A bug that could stop read-only files from being moved has been fixed as well as a potential crash when "keep shallow" was used and a few bugs regarding the preservation of mofication times in directories on the target tree were squashed. Finally the copy commands will no longer overwrite files in the target directory, not even if you use the nonstop command because that's not what nonstop is supposed to be doing. Finally Aperito now has an end2end test suit (mind you, I have not yet tested the test framework on anything but Linux) which I'll keep expanding to see if I've missed any cases. Upgrading is highly recommended.

 The latest version can be downloaded from here, and the signature from here. Source code is included in the zipfile.

Aperito v1.5.2

   Version 1.5.2 of Aperito fixes a problem I encountered when it had to copy or move files into a write protected directory. Directory permissions are now applied at the end of the process, after all files have been copied or moved.

 The latest version can be downloaded from here, and the signature from here. Source code included in the zipfile.

Aperito v1.5.1

  Version 1.5.1 of Aperito has some more examples in its help and is open source for the first time under GNU GPLv3. The source code and my build script is in the zipfile.

 The latest version can be downloaded from here, and the signature from here.

Aperito v1.5

 Version 1.5 of Aperito adds the "onlybefore" and "onlyafter" commands which take either a Unix timestamp or a relative interval like 1d (1 day), 5h (5 hours) or 32m (32 minutes) and scan the files that were modified before or after that timestamp. They can be, of course, combined to scan specific time ranges. I needed this to use scancopynew to backup new files from my user directory without re-hashing all my files every time.

 The latest version can be downloaded from here, and the signature from here.